Hull City 0–2 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Birmingham

J. Bacuna 47'

T. Deeney 14' (pen)

10/16/2022

Championship · Round 15The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Hull City42%

×Draw27%

Birmingham31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Hull City

1.33

Birmingham

1.10

Hull City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 34 away

1.31

creates per match

0.94

1.26

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Hull City

1.31

Birmingham

0.94

allows per match

Hull City

1.26

Birmingham

1.35

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less

Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

69%

Hull City or Birmingham

73%

Draw or Birmingham

58%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

19%

Birmingham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

74%

Hull City 2+ goals

38%

Hull City 3+ goals

15%

Birmingham 1+ goals

67%

Birmingham 2+ goals

30%

Birmingham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

58%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hull City scores more

42%

level

27%

Birmingham scores more

31%

Hull City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Bacuna

Birmingham · M

8.6

Match Events

14'

T. DeeneyPenalty

26'

33'

43'

47'

53'

56'

R. Williams← J. Greaves

63'

66'

70'

73'

77'

J. Bellingham← T. Chong

78'

J. Graham← J. Bacuna

78'

L. Jutkiewicz← T. Deeney

82'

X. Simons← D. Pelkas

82'

R. Woods← J. Seri

83'

R. Longman← O. Tufan

86'

G. Hall← H. Mejbri

90+3'

J. James← K. Bielik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullBirmingham

Overview

68%Possession32%

12Total Shots9

7Corners6

15Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots9

2On Target3

4Off Target4

6Blocked2

5Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

570Total Passes263

465Accurate Passes177

82%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls6

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0