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Hull City vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
M. Wilks 57'
G. Honeyman 17'
11/20/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Hull City41%
×Draw27%
Birmingham32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.30
Birmingham
1.11

Hull City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 37 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.30
Birmingham
0.96

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Birmingham
1.30

finishing

Hull City-0.14scores less
Birmingham-0.18scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
68%
Hull City or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
59%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
18%
Birmingham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
73%
Hull City 2+ goals
37%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
Birmingham 1+ goals
67%
Birmingham 2+ goals
30%
Birmingham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
56%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 55 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.30 + Birmingham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Birmingham attack 0.96 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hull City scores more
41%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
32%

Hull City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
G. HoneymanHull CityHull City · F
8.5

Match Events

17'
G. Honeyman↳ R. Longman
34'
Scott Hogan
43'
Josh Magennis
43'
Gary Gardner
45+3'
Di'Shon Bernard
46'
J. James← H. Dean
57'
M. Wilks↳ K. Lewis-Potter
61'
L. Jutkiewicz← T. Deeney
65'
Jacob Greaves
71'
R. Williams← R. Longman
71'
T. Smith← J. Magennis
77'
C. Aneke← S. Hogan
79'
A. Cannon← G. Honeyman
83'
Greg Docherty

Possession

50%Hull

Shots

18Hull

Pass accuracy

50%Hull

Statistics

HullBirmingham
Overview
50%Possession50%
18Total Shots8
10Corners2
8Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots8
5On Target5
7Off Target2
6Blocked1
14Inside Box3
4Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
347Total Passes370
245Accurate Passes261
71%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls9
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
5Offsides0

Match Recap: Hull City vs Birmingham

Hull City beat Birmingham 2-0 in Championship on November 20, 2021.

Goals: G. Honeyman (17'), M. Wilks (57').

Hull City controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.