Huila 0–2 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Huila

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

America de Cali

5/9/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huila37%

×Draw28%

America de Cali35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuilaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.15

Huila

1.19

America de Cali

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 191 away

1.13

creates per match

1.04

1.26

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Huila

1.13

America de Cali

1.04

allows per match

Huila

1.26

America de Cali

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huila+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huila or draw

65%

Huila or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

63%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+

16%

America de Cali wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals

70%

Huila 2+ goals

33%

Huila 3+ goals

12%

America de Cali 1+ goals

68%

America de Cali 2+ goals

32%

America de Cali 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)

51%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 191 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huila scores more

37%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

35%

Huila at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff