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America de Cali vs Huila — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Huila
Huila
10/2/2019Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 14Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

America de Cali56%
×Draw27%
Huila17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.43
Huila
0.65

America de Cali creates 120% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 70 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.49
Huila
0.53

allows per match

America de Cali
0.77
Huila
1.36

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
83%
America de Cali or Huila
73%
Draw or Huila
44%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
28%
Huila wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
76%
America de Cali 2+ goals
42%
America de Cali 3+ goals
17%
Huila 1+ goals
48%
Huila 2+ goals
14%
Huila 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
77%
Huila (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 190 matches

Huila away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Huila defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Huila attack 0.53 + America de Cali defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

America de Cali scores more
56%
level
27%
Huila scores more
17%

America de Cali at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: America de Cali 0–1 Huila

Huila beat America de Cali 1-0 in Primera A on October 2, 2019.

The match was played at Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.