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Huginn vs Grotta — 2. Deild 2018

Huginn
Huginn
FT
0 – 1
Grotta
Grotta
7/15/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 11Seyðisfjarðarvöllur (Seyðisfjörður)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Huginn19%
×Draw24%
Grotta57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huginn
0.89
Grotta
1.71

Grotta creates 92% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Huginn
0.55
Grotta
1.86

allows per match

Huginn
1.55
Grotta
1.23

finishing

Huginn+0.00on par
Grotta+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huginn ↓

Grotta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Huginn or draw
43%
Huginn or Grotta
76%
Draw or Grotta
81%

Winning margin

Huginn wins by 2+
6%
Grotta wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Huginn 1+ goals
59%
Huginn 2+ goals
22%
Huginn 3+ goals
6%
Grotta 1+ goals
82%
Grotta 2+ goals
51%
Grotta 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Huginn (draw refunded)
26%
Grotta (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huginn at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Grotta away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huginn attack 0.55 + Grotta defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.89

Grotta attack 1.86 + Huginn defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Huginn scores more
19%
level
24%
Grotta scores more
57%

Grotta at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Grotta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Huginn 0–1 Grotta

Grotta beat Huginn 1-0 in 2. Deild on July 15, 2018.

The match was played at Seyðisfjarðarvöllur (Seyðisfjörður).