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Grotta vs Huginn — 2. Deild 2018

Grotta
Grotta
FT
4 – 0
Huginn
Huginn
9/22/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 22Vivaldivöllurinn (Seltjarnarnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Grotta80%
×Draw12%
Huginn8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grotta
3.09
Huginn
0.91

Grotta creates 240% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Grotta
2.73
Huginn
0.64

allows per match

Grotta
1.18
Huginn
3.45

finishing

Grotta+0.00on par
Huginn+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grotta ↓

Huginn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Grotta or draw
92%
Grotta or Huginn
88%
Draw or Huginn
20%

Winning margin

Grotta wins by 2+
60%
Huginn wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Grotta 1+ goals
95%
Grotta 2+ goals
81%
Grotta 3+ goals
58%
Huginn 1+ goals
60%
Huginn 2+ goals
23%
Huginn 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Grotta (draw refunded)
91%
Huginn (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grotta at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Huginn away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grotta attack 2.73 + Huginn defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 3.09

Huginn attack 0.64 + Grotta defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Grotta scores more
80%
level
12%
Huginn scores more
8%

Grotta at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Grotta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grotta 4 – 0 Huginn

Grotta beat Huginn 4-0 in 2. Deild on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Vivaldivöllurinn (Seltjarnarnes).