Huesca 1–1 Deportivo La Coruna: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo La Coruna

A. Carrillo 90'

Cruz Luismi 73'

4/12/2026

Segunda División · Round 35Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Huesca40%

×Draw29%

Deportivo La Coruna31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Coruna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.03

Huesca

1.22

Deportivo La Coruna

1.03

Huesca creates 18% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 85 away

1.29

creates per match

1.15

0.91

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Huesca

1.29

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

allows per match

Huesca

0.91

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

69%

Huesca or Deportivo La Coruna

71%

Draw or Deportivo La Coruna

60%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

70%

Huesca 2+ goals

34%

Huesca 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

57%

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.29 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Huesca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huesca scores more

40%

level

29%

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

31%

Huesca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

X. Navarro

Deportivo La Coruna · D

7.5

Match Events

22'

Javi Mier

42'

Giacomo Quagliata

57'

R. Rodriguez← D. Villares

57'

Y. Hernandez← Stoichkov

57'

B. Nsongo← S. Mulattieri

58'

Jesús Álvarez

65'

M. Agbekpornu← J. Alvarez

65'

A. Carrillo← Toni Abad

73'

Cruz Luismi↳ G. Quagliata

74'

S. Enrich← E. Rodriguez

74'

L. Beltran← D. Luna

77'

Dani Barcia

81'

C. Patino← Cruz Luismi

83'

A. Cantero← J. Mier

89'

J. Gragera← M. Soriano

90+6'

Jorge Pulido

90'

A. Carrillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaDeportivo

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots17

1.21Expected Goals (xG)1.20

6Corners9

14Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots17

2On Target3

4Off Target7

3Blocked7

3Inside Box7

6Outside Box10

Passing

44%Possession56%

418Total Passes541

353Accurate Passes469

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0