Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Huesca: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Huesca

C. Santos 43'

Ager Aketxe 19'

Rafa Mir 8'

7/5/2020

Segunda División · Round 38Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna44%

×Draw28%

Huesca29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchHuesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.02

Deportivo La Coruna

1.33

Huesca

1.02

Deportivo La Coruna creates 30% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 130 away

1.42

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.42

Huesca

0.94

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.11

Huesca

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Huesca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Huesca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

71%

Deportivo La Coruna or Huesca

72%

Draw or Huesca

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

20%

Huesca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

15%

Huesca 1+ goals

64%

Huesca 2+ goals

27%

Huesca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

60%

Huesca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Huesca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.42 + Huesca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Huesca attack 0.94 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

44%

level

28%

Huesca scores more

29%

Deportivo La Coruna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Santos

Deportivo La Coruna · F

8.3

Match Events

8'

Rafa Mir↳ Miguelón

19'

Ager Aketxe↳ C. Santos

29'

J. Pulido

43'

C. Santos↳ Salva Ruiz

45+2'

Luisinho

47'

G. Shibasaki

58'

Vicente Gómez← G. Shibasaki

68'

Eugeni Valderrama← Cristo González

68'

S. Okazaki← Pedro Mosquera

71'

Sabin Merino← C. Santos

71'

E. Çolak← Víctor Mollejo

79'

Jordi Mboula← Miguelón

80'

Juan Carlos← Mikel Rico

82'

Hugo Vallejo← Salva Ruiz

82'

David Simón← Borja Valle

84'

E. Boveda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoHuesca

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots13

3Corners6

14Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots13

6On Target4

4Off Target7

1Blocked2

4Inside Box6

7Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

462Total Passes454

372Accurate Passes394

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2