Huesca II vs CDJ Tamarite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 80+ matches
Huesca II56%
CDJ Tamarite21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Huesca II creates 80% more chances
Season form · 80 home / 98 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Huesca II ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Huesca II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches
CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Huesca II attack 1.68 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.75
CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Huesca II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Huesca II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Atlético Monzón
Cuarte
Calamocha
Épila
CaspeHuesca II
Binéfar
La Almunia
AlmudévarCDJ Tamarite
Andorra CF
Illueca
Robres
Belchite 97
Cariñena
UD Casetas
Utrillas
ZueraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Huesca II host CDJ Tamarite on Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 09:30. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019/2020 season.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Huesca II 3–0 CDJ Tamarite
Huesca II beat CDJ Tamarite 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 14, 2025.
The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.