Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CDJ Tamarite vs Huesca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

CDJ Tamarite
CDJ Tamarite
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Huesca II
Huesca II
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 28Campo La Colomina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

CDJ Tamarite39%
×Draw27%
Huesca II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CDJ Tamarite
1.28
Huesca II
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 80 away

creates per match

CDJ Tamarite
1.41
Huesca II
1.32

allows per match

CDJ Tamarite
1.06
Huesca II
1.16

finishing

CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par
Huesca II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDJ Tamarite ↓

Huesca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CDJ Tamarite or draw
66%
CDJ Tamarite or Huesca II
73%
Draw or Huesca II
61%

Winning margin

CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+
17%
Huesca II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals
72%
CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals
37%
CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals
14%
Huesca II 1+ goals
70%
Huesca II 2+ goals
33%
Huesca II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)
53%
Huesca II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDJ Tamarite at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

Huesca II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.41 + Huesca II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Huesca II attack 1.32 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CDJ Tamarite scores more
39%
level
27%
Huesca II scores more
34%

CDJ Tamarite at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CDJ Tamarite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CDJ Tamarite vs Huesca II

CDJ Tamarite and Huesca II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo La Colomina in Tamarite de Litera.