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Huesca II vs Borja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Huesca II
Huesca II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Borja
Borja
3/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 25Base Aragonesa de Futbol Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Huesca II51%
×Draw26%
Borja23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca II
1.52
Borja
0.93

Huesca II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 62 away

creates per match

Huesca II
1.68
Borja
0.98

allows per match

Huesca II
0.88
Borja
1.37

finishing

Huesca II+0.00on par
Borja+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca II ↓

Borja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huesca II or draw
77%
Huesca II or Borja
74%
Draw or Borja
49%

Winning margin

Huesca II wins by 2+
26%
Borja wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Huesca II 1+ goals
78%
Huesca II 2+ goals
45%
Huesca II 3+ goals
20%
Borja 1+ goals
61%
Borja 2+ goals
24%
Borja 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huesca II (draw refunded)
69%
Borja (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Borja away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.37 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca II attack 1.68 + Borja defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Borja attack 0.98 + Huesca II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Huesca II scores more
51%
level
26%
Borja scores more
23%

Huesca II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Huesca II 0–0 Borja

Huesca II and Borja drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Base Aragonesa de Futbol Campo 3 in Huesca.