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Borja vs Huesca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Borja
Borja
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Huesca II
Huesca II
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 8Estadio Manuel Meler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Borja32%
×Draw29%
Huesca II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borja
1.05
Huesca II
1.21

Huesca II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 80 away

creates per match

Borja
0.95
Huesca II
1.32

allows per match

Borja
1.10
Huesca II
1.16

finishing

Borja+0.00on par
Huesca II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borja ↓

Huesca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Borja or draw
60%
Borja or Huesca II
71%
Draw or Huesca II
68%

Winning margin

Borja wins by 2+
12%
Huesca II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Borja 1+ goals
65%
Borja 2+ goals
28%
Borja 3+ goals
9%
Huesca II 1+ goals
70%
Huesca II 2+ goals
34%
Huesca II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Borja (draw refunded)
44%
Huesca II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borja at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Huesca II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borja attack 0.95 + Huesca II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Huesca II attack 1.32 + Borja defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Borja scores more
32%
level
29%
Huesca II scores more
40%

Huesca II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Borja 1–2 Huesca II

Huesca II beat Borja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Meler in Borja.