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Huércal Overa vs Cartagena II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cartagena II
Cartagena II
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 25Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Huércal Overa32%
×Draw29%
Cartagena II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huércal Overa
1.06
Cartagena II
1.19

Cartagena II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 27 away

creates per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Cartagena II
1.33

allows per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Cartagena II
1.07

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par
Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

Cartagena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw
61%
Huércal Overa or Cartagena II
71%
Draw or Cartagena II
68%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+
13%
Cartagena II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals
65%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
29%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
9%
Cartagena II 1+ goals
70%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
33%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
45%
Cartagena II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Huércal Overa scores more
32%
level
29%
Cartagena II scores more
39%

Cartagena II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huércal Overa 1 – 1 Cartagena II

Huércal Overa and Cartagena II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Hornillo in Huércal-Overa.