Cartagena II 2–0 Huércal Overa: Result & Stats

Cartagena II

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Huércal Overa

11/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II57%

×Draw24%

Huércal Overa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena IIExpected goals in this matchHuércal Overa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.82

Cartagena II

1.65

Huércal Overa

0.82

Cartagena II creates 101% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 47 away

1.63

creates per match

0.79

0.85

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Cartagena II

1.63

Huércal Overa

0.79

allows per match

Cartagena II

0.85

Huércal Overa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Huércal Overa →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw

81%

Cartagena II or Huércal Overa

76%

Draw or Huércal Overa

43%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+

31%

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals

81%

Cartagena II 2+ goals

49%

Cartagena II 3+ goals

23%

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

56%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

20%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)

75%

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cartagena II scores more

57%

level

24%

Huércal Overa scores more

19%

Cartagena II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena II vs Huércal Overa

Cartagena II beat Huércal Overa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.

Cartagena II vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cartagena II vs Huércal Overa