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Huércal Overa vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
CANC
22:00
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 38Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Huércal Overa31%
×Draw30%
Atlético Pulpileño39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huércal Overa
0.95
Atlético Pulpileño
1.10

Atlético Pulpileño creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 93 away

creates per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw
61%
Huércal Overa or Atlético Pulpileño
70%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
69%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals
61%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
25%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
44%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Huércal Overa scores more
31%
level
30%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
39%

Atlético Pulpileño at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Huércal Overa host Atlético Pulpileño

May 16, 2020: Huércal Overa take on Atlético Pulpileño in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Huércal Overa host Atlético Pulpileño at Estadio El Hornillo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.