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Atlético Pulpileño vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
1/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño56%
×Draw26%
Huércal Overa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.52
Huércal Overa
0.73

Atlético Pulpileño creates 108% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 47 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Huércal Overa
0.79

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Huércal Overa
1.68

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Huércal Overa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
82%
Atlético Pulpileño or Huércal Overa
74%
Draw or Huércal Overa
44%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
29%
Huércal Overa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
20%
Huércal Overa 1+ goals
52%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
17%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
76%
Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
56%
level
26%
Huércal Overa scores more
18%

Atlético Pulpileño at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Pulpileño vs Huércal Overa

Atlético Pulpileño beat Huércal Overa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.