Huércal Overa vs Águilas: Preview & Prediction

Huércal Overa

CANC

00:00

Águilas

4/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Huércal Overa29%

×Draw31%

Águilas40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huércal OveraExpected goals in this matchÁguilas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.07

Huércal Overa

0.86

Águilas

1.07

Águilas creates 24% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 42 away

1.04

creates per match

1.10

1.04

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Huércal Overa

1.04

Águilas

1.10

allows per match

Huércal Overa

1.04

Águilas

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

Águilas →

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw

60%

Huércal Overa or Águilas

69%

Draw or Águilas

71%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

10%

Águilas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

58%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

21%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

Águilas 1+ goals

66%

Águilas 2+ goals

29%

Águilas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

42%

Águilas (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.86

Águilas attack 1.10 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huércal Overa scores more

29%

level

31%

Águilas scores more

40%

Águilas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Huércal Overa host Águilas

April 5, 2020: Huércal Overa take on Águilas in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Huércal Overa host Águilas at Estadio El Hornillo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Huércal Overa vs Águilas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Huércal Overa host Águilas