Águilas 0–0 Huércal Overa: Result & Stats

Águilas

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huércal Overa

11/16/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Águilas62%

×Draw22%

Huércal Overa16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÁguilasExpected goals in this matchHuércal Overa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.83

Águilas

1.89

Huércal Overa

0.83

Águilas creates 128% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 47 away

2.10

creates per match

0.79

0.88

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Águilas

2.10

Huércal Overa

0.79

allows per match

Águilas

0.88

Huércal Overa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas+0.00on par

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas ↓

Huércal Overa →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Águilas or draw

84%

Águilas or Huércal Overa

78%

Draw or Huércal Overa

38%

Winning margin

Águilas wins by 2+

37%

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

Team goals

Águilas 1+ goals

85%

Águilas 2+ goals

56%

Águilas 3+ goals

29%

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

56%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

20%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Águilas (draw refunded)

80%

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Águilas at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Águilas attack 2.10 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.89

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Águilas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Águilas scores more

62%

level

22%

Huércal Overa scores more

16%

Águilas at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff