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Hudson Valley Hammers vs FA Euro New York — USL League Two 2018

Hudson Valley Hammers
Hudson Valley Hammers
FT
3 – 5
HT: 2 – 1
FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
7/17/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 77Mount Saint Mary College

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Hudson Valley Hammers57%
×Draw20%
FA Euro New York23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hudson Valley Hammers
2.31
FA Euro New York
1.41

Hudson Valley Hammers creates 64% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 25 away

creates per match

Hudson Valley Hammers
2.38
FA Euro New York
1.16

allows per match

Hudson Valley Hammers
1.66
FA Euro New York
2.24

finishing

Hudson Valley Hammers+0.00on par
FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hudson Valley Hammers ↓

FA Euro New York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hudson Valley Hammers or draw
77%
Hudson Valley Hammers or FA Euro New York
80%
Draw or FA Euro New York
43%

Winning margin

Hudson Valley Hammers wins by 2+
36%
FA Euro New York wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hudson Valley Hammers 1+ goals
90%
Hudson Valley Hammers 2+ goals
67%
Hudson Valley Hammers 3+ goals
40%
FA Euro New York 1+ goals
76%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
41%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hudson Valley Hammers (draw refunded)
71%
FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hudson Valley Hammers at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

FA Euro New York away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hudson Valley Hammers attack 2.38 + FA Euro New York defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.31

FA Euro New York attack 1.16 + Hudson Valley Hammers defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hudson Valley Hammers scores more
57%
level
20%
FA Euro New York scores more
23%

Hudson Valley Hammers at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hudson Valley Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hudson Valley Hammers vs FA Euro New York

FA Euro New York beat Hudson Valley Hammers 5-3 in USL League Two on July 17, 2022.

The match was played at Mount Saint Mary College in Newburgh, New York.