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FA Euro New York vs Hudson Valley Hammers — USL League Two 2018

FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 2
Hudson Valley Hammers
Hudson Valley Hammers
7/10/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Eastern Conference - 24Poly Prep Country Day School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FA Euro New York34%
×Draw23%
Hudson Valley Hammers43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Euro New York
1.51
Hudson Valley Hammers
1.73

Hudson Valley Hammers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

creates per match

FA Euro New York
1.27
Hudson Valley Hammers
2.22

allows per match

FA Euro New York
1.23
Hudson Valley Hammers
1.75

finishing

FA Euro New York+0.00on par
Hudson Valley Hammers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Euro New York ↓

Hudson Valley Hammers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FA Euro New York or draw
57%
FA Euro New York or Hudson Valley Hammers
77%
Draw or Hudson Valley Hammers
66%

Winning margin

FA Euro New York wins by 2+
16%
Hudson Valley Hammers wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FA Euro New York 1+ goals
78%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
44%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
19%
Hudson Valley Hammers 1+ goals
82%
Hudson Valley Hammers 2+ goals
52%
Hudson Valley Hammers 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
44%
Hudson Valley Hammers (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Euro New York at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Hudson Valley Hammers away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Euro New York attack 1.27 + Hudson Valley Hammers defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

Hudson Valley Hammers attack 2.22 + FA Euro New York defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FA Euro New York scores more
34%
level
23%
Hudson Valley Hammers scores more
43%

Hudson Valley Hammers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hudson Valley Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FA Euro New York vs Hudson Valley Hammers

FA Euro New York and Hudson Valley Hammers drew 0-0 in USL League Two on July 10, 2023.

The match was played at Poly Prep Country Day School in New York City.