Huddersfield 1–4 West Ham: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

West Ham

J. Lolley 40'

M. Lanzini 61', 56'

M. Arnautović 46'

M. Noble 25'

1/13/2018

Premier League · Round 23John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Huddersfield32%

×Draw27%

West Ham41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.34

Huddersfield

1.14

West Ham

1.34

West Ham creates 18% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 198 away

0.68

creates per match

1.21

1.47

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Huddersfield

0.68

West Ham

1.21

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.47

West Ham

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

59%

Huddersfield or West Ham

73%

Draw or West Ham

68%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

13%

West Ham wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

68%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

32%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

11%

West Ham 1+ goals

74%

West Ham 2+ goals

39%

West Ham 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

43%

West Ham (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 198 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 0.68 + West Ham defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

West Ham attack 1.21 + Huddersfield defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huddersfield scores more

32%

level

27%

West Ham scores more

41%

West Ham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Lanzini

West Ham · F

8.9

Match Events

25'

M. Noble

31'

Tommy Smith

40'

J. Lolley↳ A. Mooy

46'

M. Arnautović↳ C. Kouyaté

56'

M. Lanzini↳ M. Arnautović

61'

M. Lanzini↳ M. Arnautović

65'

A. Pritchard← J. Lolley

71'

T. Kongolo← T. Smith

76'

Aaron Cresswell

83'

A. Ayew← M. Arnautović

85'

D. Rice← M. Lanzini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldWest

Overview

64%Possession36%

8Total Shots8

7Corners3

7Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots8

2On Target6

4Off Target1

2Blocked1

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

548Total Passes306

443Accurate Passes209

81%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides5