Huddersfield 1–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

D. Sinani 6'

11/20/2021

Championship · Round 18John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Huddersfield33%

×Draw27%

West Brom40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.30

Huddersfield

1.16

West Brom

1.30

West Brom creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 55 away

1.08

creates per match

1.15

1.46

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.08

West Brom

1.15

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.46

West Brom

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

West Brom-0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

60%

Huddersfield or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

67%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

14%

West Brom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

69%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

32%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

11%

West Brom 1+ goals

73%

West Brom 2+ goals

37%

West Brom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

45%

West Brom (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.08 + West Brom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

West Brom attack 1.15 + Huddersfield defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huddersfield scores more

33%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

40%

West Brom at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Townsend

West Brom · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

24'

49'

50'

61'

J. Hugill← G. Diangana

68'

F. Campbell← D. Ward

75'

J. Molumby← A. Mowatt

78'

Jake Livermore

82'

D. Furlong← M. Phillips

86'

J. Ruffels← S. Thomas

90+2'

J. Russell← D. Sinani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldWest

Overview

36%Possession64%

6Total Shots20

3Corners6

5Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots20

2On Target2

3Off Target9

1Blocked9

3Inside Box13

3Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

284Total Passes518

155Accurate Passes411

55%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

5Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1