Huddersfield 2–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

West Brom

E. Smith Rowe 86'

C. Willock 4'

D. O'Shea 42'

7/17/2020

Championship · Round 45John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Huddersfield38%

×Draw28%

West Brom35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.17

Huddersfield

1.24

West Brom

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 163 away

1.22

creates per match

1.18

1.17

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.22

West Brom

1.18

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.17

West Brom

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

65%

Huddersfield or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

62%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

16%

West Brom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

71%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

35%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

69%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

52%

West Brom (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.26 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.22 + West Brom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

West Brom attack 1.18 + Huddersfield defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huddersfield scores more

38%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

35%

Huddersfield at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Matheus Pereira

West Brom · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

19'

23'

30'

38'

42'

46'

F. Krovinović← M. Phillips

46'

K. Grosicki← J. Livermore

53'

Conor Townsend

59'

D. Furlong← C. Townsend

59'

C. Austin← H. Robson-Kanu

60'

Fraizer Campbell

63'

S. Mounié← F. Campbell

71'

K. Ahearne-Grant← J. Bacuna

71'

E. Smith Rowe← A. King

75'

C. Robinson← G. Diangana

80'

E. Kachunga← C. Willock

81'

Filip Krovinović

85'

Jonas Lössl

86'

E. Smith Rowe↳ L. O'Brien

88'

Darnell Furlong

90'

Charlie Austin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldWest

Overview

30%Possession70%

7Total Shots13

2Corners7

19Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots13

4On Target4

2Off Target5

1Blocked4

5Inside Box10

2Outside Box3

Passing

30%Possession70%

217Total Passes485

121Accurate Passes383

56%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls17

4Yellow Cards6

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs West Brom

Huddersfield beat West Brom 2-1 in Championship on July 17, 2020.

Goals: C. Willock (4'), D. O'Shea (42'), E. Smith Rowe (86').

West Brom controlled possession (70%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.

Huddersfield vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs West Brom