Huddersfield 0–1 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Crystal Palace

W. Zaha 38'

9/15/2018

Premier League · Round 5John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Huddersfield31%

×Draw27%

Crystal Palace41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.32

Huddersfield

1.11

Crystal Palace

1.32

Crystal Palace creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 208 away

0.68

creates per match

1.18

1.47

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Huddersfield

0.68

Crystal Palace

1.18

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.47

Crystal Palace

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

59%

Huddersfield or Crystal Palace

73%

Draw or Crystal Palace

69%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

12%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

67%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

30%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

10%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

73%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

38%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

43%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 208 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 0.68 + Crystal Palace defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.11

Crystal Palace attack 1.18 + Huddersfield defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huddersfield scores more

31%

level

27%

Crystal Palace scores more

41%

Crystal Palace at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

C. Löwe

Huddersfield · M

7.8

Match Events

11'

James McArthur

27'

Zanka

29'

Wilfried Zaha

38'

W. Zaha↳ J. Ayew

68'

A. Diakhaby← E. Kachunga

78'

I. Mbenza← R. van La Parra

78'

L. Depoitre← M. Jørgensen

90+2'

J. Schlupp← A. Townsend

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldCrystal

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots7

5Corners3

11Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots7

2On Target2

9Off Target2

4Blocked3

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

494Total Passes363

411Accurate Passes287

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2