Huddersfield 1–1 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cardiff

R. Ledson 27'

Y. Salech 90'

4/14/2026

League One · Round 40John Smit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Huddersfield39%

×Draw25%

Cardiff37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.46

Huddersfield

1.50

Cardiff

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.83

creates per match

1.74

1.17

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.83

Cardiff

1.74

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.17

Cardiff

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

63%

Huddersfield or Cardiff

75%

Draw or Cardiff

61%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

19%

Cardiff wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

78%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

44%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

19%

Cardiff 1+ goals

77%

Cardiff 2+ goals

43%

Cardiff 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

51%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.83 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cardiff attack 1.74 + Huddersfield defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Huddersfield scores more

39%

level

25%

Cardiff scores more

37%

Huddersfield at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

N. Trott

Cardiff · G

8.3

Match Events

27'

R. Ledson↳ L. Sorensen

38'

G. Sebine← B. Radulovic

45+1'

Alex Robertson

59'

Dylan Lawlor

60'

D. Turnbull← A. Robertson

60'

G. Osho← D. Lawlor

60'

Y. Salech← C. Willock

66'

C. Robinson← R. Colwill

72'

Ryan Wintle

76'

M. McGuane← R. Ledson

77'

M. Miller← D. Kasumu

83'

J. Colwill← R. Wintle

88'

J. Low← B. Mumba

90+9'

Sean Roughan

90+8'

Joel Colwill

90'

Y. Salech↳ C. Robinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldCardiff

Overview

29%Possession71%

19Total Shots16

3.40Expected Goals (xG)1.20

4Corners7

7Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots16

7On Target3

8Off Target8

4Blocked5

15Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

29%Possession71%

215Total Passes550

145Accurate Passes483

67%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

4Offsides0

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Cardiff

Huddersfield and Cardiff drew 1-1 in League One on April 14, 2026.

Goals: R. Ledson (27'), Y. Salech (90').

Cardiff controlled possession (71%) and registered 16 shots to 19.

The match was played at John Smit in Huddersfield.

Huddersfield vs Cardiff — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Cardiff