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Huddersfield vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
J. Rhodes 8'
9/17/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Huddersfield39%
×Draw28%
Cardiff33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.23
Cardiff
1.11

Huddersfield creates 11% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 36 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.09
Cardiff
0.87

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.35
Cardiff
1.38

finishing

Huddersfield-0.09on par
Cardiff+0.16scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
67%
Huddersfield or Cardiff
72%
Draw or Cardiff
61%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
17%
Cardiff wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
71%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
35%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
13%
Cardiff 1+ goals
67%
Cardiff 2+ goals
30%
Cardiff 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
54%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.35 · 12 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.09 + Cardiff defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cardiff attack 0.87 + Huddersfield defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Huddersfield scores more
39%
level
28%
Cardiff scores more
33%

Huddersfield at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
P. NgCardiffCardiff · D
8.2

Match Events

8'
J. Rhodes
42'
Jack Rudoni
46'
D. Ward← F. Anjorin
46'
R. Sawyers← J. Philogene
46'
M. Harris← N. Nkounkou
58'
P. Jones← J. Rudoni
69'
David Kasumu
70'
R. Colwill← M. Romeo
75'
Patrick Jones
80'
S. Thomas← D. Holmes
83'
T. Sang← P. Ng
89'
Lee Nicholls
90+1'
L. Mbete← J. Rhodes
90+1'
S. Ojo← A. Rinomhota

Possession

33%Huddersfield

Shots

8Huddersfield

Pass accuracy

42%Huddersfield

Statistics

HuddersfieldCardiff
Overview
33%Possession67%
8Total Shots7
1Corners3
10Fouls6
Shots
8Total Shots7
4On Target2
4Off Target4
0Blocked1
7Inside Box3
1Outside Box4
Passing
33%Possession67%
262Total Passes539
149Accurate Passes419
57%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls6
4Yellow Cards0
6Offsides3

Championship: Huddersfield 1–0 Cardiff

Huddersfield beat Cardiff 1-0 in Championship on September 17, 2022.

Goals: J. Rhodes (8').

Cardiff controlled possession (67%) and registered 7 shots to 8.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.