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Huddersfield vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
2/23/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Huddersfield42%
×Draw27%
Cardiff32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.38
Cardiff
1.16

Huddersfield creates 19% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 145 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.22
Cardiff
1.15

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.17
Cardiff
1.54

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
68%
Huddersfield or Cardiff
73%
Draw or Cardiff
58%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
20%
Cardiff wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
75%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
40%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
16%
Cardiff 1+ goals
69%
Cardiff 2+ goals
32%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
57%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.22 + Cardiff defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cardiff attack 1.15 + Huddersfield defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Huddersfield scores more
42%
level
27%
Cardiff scores more
32%

Huddersfield at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Huddersfield 2–1 Cardiff

Huddersfield beat Cardiff 2-1 in Championship on February 23, 2022.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.