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Huddersfield vs Burton Albion — Championship 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
J. Irvine 90+6'
4/1/2017ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Huddersfield20%
×Draw27%
Burton Albion53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
0.78
Burton Albion
1.44

Burton Albion creates 85% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 3 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.23
Burton Albion
1.67

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.22
Burton Albion
0.33

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
47%
Huddersfield or Burton Albion
73%
Draw or Burton Albion
80%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
6%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
54%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
18%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
4%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
76%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
42%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
28%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 123 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.23 + Burton Albion defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.78

Burton Albion attack 1.67 + Huddersfield defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Huddersfield scores more
20%
level
27%
Burton Albion scores more
53%

Burton Albion at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
B. TurnerBurton AlbionBurton Albion · D
8.1

Match Events

27'
Dean Whitehead
49'
Kyle McFadzean
55'
E. Kachunga← J. Lolley
55'
N. Wells← J. Payne
63'
J. Irvine← M. Kightly
68'
L. Varney← C. Woodrow
74'
John Brayford
76'
L. Akins← L. Christensen
78'
Marvin Sordell
80'
P. Billing← C. Quaner
82'
Ben Turner
88'
Dean Whitehead
88'
Dean Whitehead
88'
Tom Flanagan
90'
Chris Löwe
90'
John Mousinho
90+6'
J. Irvine↳ M. Sordell

Possession

70%Huddersfield

Shots

18Huddersfield

Pass accuracy

58%Huddersfield

Statistics

HuddersfieldBurton
Overview
70%Possession30%
18Total Shots10
9Corners4
12Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots10
5On Target4
5Off Target3
8Blocked3
11Inside Box7
7Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
548Total Passes235
439Accurate Passes135
80%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls13
3Yellow Cards6
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Championship: Huddersfield 0–1 Burton Albion

Burton Albion beat Huddersfield 1-0 in Championship on April 1, 2017.

Goals: J. Irvine (90+6').

Huddersfield controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield.