Burton Albion 3–0 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Huddersfield

R. Burrell 55', 9'

J. Larsson 45'

4/12/2025

League One · Round 42Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion36%

×Draw27%

Huddersfield38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.31

Burton Albion

1.27

Huddersfield

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.28

creates per match

1.68

0.95

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Huddersfield

1.68

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Huddersfield

1.26

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Huddersfield-0.04on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

62%

Burton Albion or Huddersfield

73%

Draw or Huddersfield

64%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

16%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

72%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

36%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

14%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

73%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

38%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

49%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.26 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Huddersfield defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Huddersfield attack 1.68 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burton Albion scores more

36%

level

27%

Huddersfield scores more

38%

Huddersfield at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Burrell

Burton Albion · F

9.0

Match Events

9'

R. Burrell↳ U. Godwin-Malife

20'

Owen Dodgson

27'

D. Williams← A. Forde

45'

46'

51'

53'

55'

65'

65'

C. Marshall← D. Kasumu

70'

Antony Evans

71'

Dylan Williams

75'

T. Kalinauskas← J. Larsson

87'

Fábio Tavares← R. Burrell

87'

M. Bennett← K. Chauke

88'

J. Taroni← J. Sraha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonHuddersfield

Overview

35%Possession65%

16Total Shots5

7Corners4

7Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots5

6On Target0

3Off Target2

7Blocked3

10Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

255Total Passes479

173Accurate Passes382

68%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2