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Huddersfield vs Brentford — Championship 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brentford
Brentford
L. O'Brien 7'
M. Sørensen 50'
4/3/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huddersfield33%
×Draw27%
Brentford40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.17
Brentford
1.31

Brentford creates 12% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 70 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.23
Brentford
1.41

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.22
Brentford
1.10

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par
Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
60%
Huddersfield or Brentford
73%
Draw or Brentford
67%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
14%
Brentford wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
69%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
33%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
11%
Brentford 1+ goals
73%
Brentford 2+ goals
38%
Brentford 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
45%
Brentford (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 123 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.23 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Brentford attack 1.41 + Huddersfield defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huddersfield scores more
33%
level
27%
Brentford scores more
40%

Brentford at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
M. SørensenBrentfordBrentford · D
7.9

Match Events

7'
L. O'Brien↳ Álex Vallejo
23'
J. Bacuna← Álex Vallejo
50'
M. Sørensen↳ V. Janelt
56'
Duane Holmes
59'
A. Rowe← Pipa Ávila
59'
R. Stearman← D. Holmes
62'
M. Jensen← V. Janelt
66'
Bryan Mbeumo
72'
E. Marcondes← S. Ghoddos
72'
T. Fosu← Sergi Canós
81'
D. Ward← F. Campbell
81'
M. Forss← B. Mbeumo
88'
Jonathan Hogg
90'
Lewis O'Brien
90'
Ryan Schofield

Possession

39%Huddersfield

Shots

3Huddersfield

Pass accuracy

46%Huddersfield

Statistics

HuddersfieldBrentford
Overview
39%Possession61%
3Total Shots15
2Corners4
19Fouls15
Shots
3Total Shots15
2On Target5
1Off Target9
0Blocked1
1Inside Box11
2Outside Box4
Passing
39%Possession61%
289Total Passes443
190Accurate Passes344
66%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls15
4Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Brentford

Huddersfield and Brentford drew 1-1 in Championship on April 3, 2021.

Goals: L. O'Brien (7'), M. Sørensen (50').

Brentford controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 3.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.