Hubei Chufeng Heli 0–2 Shaanxi Union

Hubei Chufeng Heli

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Shaanxi Union

3/23/2024

League Two · Round 1Xinhua Road Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hubei Chufeng Heli30%

×Draw27%

Shaanxi Union44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hubei Chufeng HeliExpected goals in this matchShaanxi Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.40

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.10

Shaanxi Union

1.40

Shaanxi Union creates 27% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

1.64

1.17

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.13

Shaanxi Union

1.64

allows per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.17

Shaanxi Union

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hubei Chufeng Heli+0.00on par

Shaanxi Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hubei Chufeng Heli ↓

Shaanxi Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hubei Chufeng Heli or draw

56%

Hubei Chufeng Heli or Shaanxi Union

73%

Draw or Shaanxi Union

70%

Winning margin

Hubei Chufeng Heli wins by 2+

12%

Shaanxi Union wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hubei Chufeng Heli 1+ goals

67%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 2+ goals

30%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 3+ goals

10%

Shaanxi Union 1+ goals

75%

Shaanxi Union 2+ goals

41%

Shaanxi Union 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hubei Chufeng Heli (draw refunded)

40%

Shaanxi Union (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hubei Chufeng Heli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Shaanxi Union away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.13 + Shaanxi Union defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Shaanxi Union attack 1.64 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hubei Chufeng Heli scores more

30%

level

27%

Shaanxi Union scores more

44%

Shaanxi Union at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shaanxi Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff