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Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Hubei Chufeng Heli
Hubei Chufeng Heli
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
10/10/2023League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 6Xinhua Road Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Hubei Chufeng Heli43%
×Draw28%
Guangxi Lanhang29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.31
Guangxi Lanhang
1.02

Hubei Chufeng Heli creates 28% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 40 away

creates per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.13
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.17
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Hubei Chufeng Heli+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hubei Chufeng Heli ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hubei Chufeng Heli or draw
71%
Hubei Chufeng Heli or Guangxi Lanhang
72%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
57%

Winning margin

Hubei Chufeng Heli wins by 2+
20%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hubei Chufeng Heli 1+ goals
73%
Hubei Chufeng Heli 2+ goals
38%
Hubei Chufeng Heli 3+ goals
14%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
64%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
27%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hubei Chufeng Heli (draw refunded)
60%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hubei Chufeng Heli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.13 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hubei Chufeng Heli scores more
43%
level
28%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
29%

Hubei Chufeng Heli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hubei Chufeng Heli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hubei Chufeng Heli 0–1 Guangxi Lanhang

Guangxi Lanhang beat Hubei Chufeng Heli 1-0 in League Two on October 10, 2023.

The match was played at Xinhua Road Sports Center in Wuhan.