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Guangxi Lanhang vs Hubei Chufeng Heli — League Two 2022

Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hubei Chufeng Heli
Hubei Chufeng Heli
8/26/2023League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 2Liuzhou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang30%
×Draw27%
Hubei Chufeng Heli44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Lanhang
1.10
Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.40

Hubei Chufeng Heli creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 56 away

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang
0.80
Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.09

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang
1.70
Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.41

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par
Hubei Chufeng Heli+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Hubei Chufeng Heli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw
56%
Guangxi Lanhang or Hubei Chufeng Heli
73%
Draw or Hubei Chufeng Heli
70%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
12%
Hubei Chufeng Heli wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
67%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
30%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
10%
Hubei Chufeng Heli 1+ goals
75%
Hubei Chufeng Heli 2+ goals
41%
Hubei Chufeng Heli 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
40%
Hubei Chufeng Heli (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Hubei Chufeng Heli away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.09 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more
30%
level
27%
Hubei Chufeng Heli scores more
44%

Hubei Chufeng Heli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hubei Chufeng Heli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangxi Lanhang 1–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli

Guangxi Lanhang beat Hubei Chufeng Heli 1-0 in League Two on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Liuzhou Sports Center Stadium in Liuzhou.