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Huarte vs Avance Ezcabarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Huarte
Huarte
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
3/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 24Estadio Areta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Huarte52%
×Draw25%
Avance Ezcabarte23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huarte
1.65
Avance Ezcabarte
1.01

Huarte creates 63% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 64 away

creates per match

Huarte
1.79
Avance Ezcabarte
0.97

allows per match

Huarte
1.05
Avance Ezcabarte
1.50

finishing

Huarte+0.00on par
Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huarte ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Huarte or draw
77%
Huarte or Avance Ezcabarte
75%
Draw or Avance Ezcabarte
48%

Winning margin

Huarte wins by 2+
28%
Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Huarte 1+ goals
81%
Huarte 2+ goals
49%
Huarte 3+ goals
23%
Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
64%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
27%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huarte (draw refunded)
69%
Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huarte at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huarte attack 1.79 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Huarte defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Huarte scores more
52%
level
25%
Avance Ezcabarte scores more
23%

Huarte at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Huarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Huarte 0–1 Avance Ezcabarte

Avance Ezcabarte beat Huarte 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Areta in Uharte.