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Avance Ezcabarte vs Huarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Huarte
Huarte
10/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 7Campo Igueldea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avance Ezcabarte43%
×Draw25%
Huarte32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avance Ezcabarte
1.56
Huarte
1.32

Avance Ezcabarte creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 108 away

creates per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.72
Huarte
1.33

allows per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.31
Huarte
1.41

finishing

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par
Huarte+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avance Ezcabarte ↓

Huarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Avance Ezcabarte or draw
68%
Avance Ezcabarte or Huarte
75%
Draw or Huarte
57%

Winning margin

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
21%
Huarte wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
79%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
46%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
21%
Huarte 1+ goals
73%
Huarte 2+ goals
38%
Huarte 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
57%
Huarte (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avance Ezcabarte at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Huarte away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avance Ezcabarte attack 1.72 + Huarte defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Huarte attack 1.33 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avance Ezcabarte scores more
43%
level
25%
Huarte scores more
32%

Avance Ezcabarte at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avance Ezcabarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avance Ezcabarte vs Huarte

Huarte beat Avance Ezcabarte 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Igueldea in Arre.