Huachipato 2–1 Palestino: Result & Stats

Huachipato

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Palestino

L. Altamirano 81'

C. Martinez 62' (pen)

N. Da Silva 18'

2/21/2026

Primera División · Round 4Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Huachipato41%

×Draw26%

Palestino33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuachipatoExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.23

Huachipato

1.39

Palestino

1.23

Huachipato creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.75

creates per match

1.32

1.13

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Huachipato

1.75

Palestino

1.32

allows per match

Huachipato

1.13

Palestino

1.02

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Huachipato+0.45scores more

Palestino-0.32scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw

67%

Huachipato or Palestino

74%

Draw or Palestino

59%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+

19%

Palestino wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals

75%

Huachipato 2+ goals

40%

Huachipato 3+ goals

16%

Palestino 1+ goals

71%

Palestino 2+ goals

35%

Palestino 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)

55%

Palestino (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 5 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.75 + Palestino defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.39

Palestino attack 1.32 + Huachipato defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huachipato scores more

41%

level

26%

Palestino scores more

33%

Huachipato at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

N. Da Silva

Palestino · F

7.9

Match Events

14'

José Bizama

18'

N. Da Silva↳ J. Fernandez

42'

Nelson Da Silva

45+1'

H. Antinirre← J. Castro

46'

E. Canete← J. Carcamo

53'

Nicolás Vargas

53'

C. Sepulveda← S. Silva

53'

M. Briceno← B. Mellado

59'

Mario BriceñoPenalty confirmed

62'

C. MartinezPenalty

68'

J. Benitez← J. Leon

68'

F. T. Montes Romero← G. Tapia Paez

68'

B. Carrasco← I. A. Garguez Gomez

77'

Vicente Espinoza

79'

L. Altamirano← K. Altez

81'

L. Altamirano

87'

N. Meza← J. Fernandez

87'

A. Gomez← S. Gallegos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuachipatoPalestino

Overview

56%Possession44%

21Total Shots12

3Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots12

7On Target2

10Off Target7

4Blocked3

10Inside Box4

11Outside Box8

Passing

56%Possession44%

431Total Passes333

349Accurate Passes256

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3