Huachipato 2–2 Palestino: Result & Stats

Huachipato

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Palestino

C. Villanueva 84'

T. Vecino 16'

I. Garguez 89'

B. Carrasco 14' (pen)

8/30/2024

Primera División · Round 22Estadio CAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Huachipato37%

×Draw26%

Palestino37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuachipatoExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.32

Huachipato

1.31

Palestino

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.61

creates per match

1.39

1.26

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Huachipato

1.61

Palestino

1.39

allows per match

Huachipato

1.26

Palestino

1.01

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Huachipato+0.56scores more

Palestino-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw

63%

Huachipato or Palestino

74%

Draw or Palestino

63%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+

16%

Palestino wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals

73%

Huachipato 2+ goals

38%

Huachipato 3+ goals

14%

Palestino 1+ goals

73%

Palestino 2+ goals

38%

Palestino 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)

50%

Palestino (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.61 + Palestino defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Palestino attack 1.39 + Huachipato defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huachipato scores more

37%

level

26%

Palestino scores more

37%

Huachipato at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Villanueva

Huachipato · M

8.6

Match Events

11'

Gonzalo SosaPenalty confirmed

14'

B. CarrascoPenalty

16'

T. Vecino↳ B. Palmezano

19'

B. Mellado← I. González

43'

Jose Bizama

46'

J. Gutiérrez← M. Gutiérrez

60'

Benjamín Rojas

68'

Gonzalo Montes

71'

Nicolás Linares

81'

S. Sáez← B. Palmezano

81'

N. Meza← A. Martínez

81'

J. Garro← M. Dávila

84'

C. Villanueva↳ S. Sáez

87'

S. Silva← T. Vecino

87'

F. Chamorro← N. Linares

89'

P. Palacio← B. Véjar

89'

I. Garguez

90+4'

Pablo Palacio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuachipatoPalestino

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots18

0.91Expected Goals (xG)1.91

3Corners4

8Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots18

7On Target5

4Off Target6

5Blocked7

8Inside Box10

8Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

385Total Passes348

275Accurate Passes246

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Huachipato vs Palestino

Huachipato and Palestino drew 2-2 in Primera División on August 30, 2024.

Goals: B. Carrasco (14' pen), T. Vecino (16'), C. Villanueva (84'), I. Garguez (89').

Huachipato controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio CAP in Talcahuano.

Huachipato vs Palestino — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huachipato vs Palestino