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Huachipato vs Gremio — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Huachipato
Huachipato
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gremio
Gremio
Diego Costa 6'
6/5/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio CAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Huachipato28%
×Draw31%
Gremio41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huachipato
0.84
Gremio
1.09

Gremio creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Huachipato
0.50
Gremio
1.19

allows per match

Huachipato
1.00
Gremio
1.19

finishing

Huachipato+0.00on par
Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Gremio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw
59%
Huachipato or Gremio
69%
Draw or Gremio
72%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+
9%
Gremio wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals
57%
Huachipato 2+ goals
21%
Huachipato 3+ goals
5%
Gremio 1+ goals
66%
Gremio 2+ goals
30%
Gremio 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)
40%
Gremio (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 0.50 + Gremio defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.84

Gremio attack 1.19 + Huachipato defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huachipato scores more
28%
level
31%
Gremio scores more
41%

Gremio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Diego Costa↳ F. Cristaldo
37'
Claudio Sepúlveda
46'
R. Malanca← S. Silva
46'
Nathan Fernandes← Everton Galdino
53'
Pepê
55'
Imanol González
58'
J. Vargas← J. Gutiérrez
68'
Gustavo Nunes← Nathan Fernandes
71'
Reinaldo
72'
S. Sáez← I. González
72'
L. Díaz← A. Castillo
78'
F. Carballo← F. Cristaldo
78'
Du Queiroz← Pepê
79'
B. Palmezano← C. Sepúlveda
83'
Gustavo Martins← Y. Soteldo
89'
Renzo Malanca

Possession

58%Huachipato

Shots

16Huachipato

Statistics

HuachipatoGremio
Overview
58%Possession42%
16Total Shots9
6Corners5
16Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots9
7On Target2
9Off Target7
0Blocked0
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
16Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Huachipato vs Gremio

Gremio beat Huachipato 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on June 5, 2024.

Goals: Diego Costa (6').

Huachipato controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio CAP in Talcahuano.