Gremio 0–2 Huachipato: Result & Stats

Gremio

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Huachipato

G. Montes 45+6'

F. Loyola 13'

4/9/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gremio55%

×Draw23%

Huachipato23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchHuachipato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.13

Gremio

1.88

Huachipato

1.13

Gremio creates 66% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

1.50

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Gremio

1.75

Huachipato

1.50

allows per match

Gremio

0.75

Huachipato

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

Huachipato+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Huachipato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

77%

Gremio or Huachipato

77%

Draw or Huachipato

45%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

31%

Huachipato wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

85%

Gremio 2+ goals

56%

Gremio 3+ goals

29%

Huachipato 1+ goals

68%

Huachipato 2+ goals

31%

Huachipato 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

71%

Huachipato (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Huachipato away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.75 + Huachipato defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Huachipato attack 1.50 + Gremio defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gremio scores more

55%

level

23%

Huachipato scores more

23%

Gremio at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

R. Malanca

Huachipato · D

8.9

Match Events

13'

F. Loyola↳ C. Martínez

35'

Santiago Silva

35'

Cuiabano← Mayk

45+2'

Diego Costa

45+2'

Benjamín Gazzolo

45+6'

G. Montes

46'

Pepê← Geromel

46'

Gustavo Nunes← Everton Galdino

46'

J. Martínez← J. Vargas

60'

Jimmy Martínez

67'

Franco Cristaldo

68'

M. Gutiérrez← J. Brea

74'

C. Pavón← F. Cristaldo

74'

Nathan Fernandes← Y. Soteldo

89'

S. Sáez← M. Rodríguez

90+4'

C. Torres← C. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioHuachipato

Overview

65%Possession35%

21Total Shots8

3.02Expected Goals (xG)0.80

4Corners3

6Fouls16

Shots

21Total Shots8

4On Target5

9Off Target3

8Blocked0

12Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

512Total Passes283

419Accurate Passes182

82%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1