Huachipato 1–0 Everton de Vina: Result & Stats

Huachipato

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Everton de Vina

G. Montes 7'

5/25/2024

Primera División · Round 14Estadio CAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Huachipato49%

×Draw25%

Everton de Vina26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuachipatoExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.11

Huachipato

1.61

Everton de Vina

1.11

Huachipato creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.61

creates per match

0.97

1.26

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Huachipato

1.61

Everton de Vina

0.97

allows per match

Huachipato

1.26

Everton de Vina

1.61

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Huachipato+0.56scores more

Everton de Vina-0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw

74%

Huachipato or Everton de Vina

75%

Draw or Everton de Vina

51%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+

26%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals

80%

Huachipato 2+ goals

48%

Huachipato 3+ goals

22%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

67%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

30%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)

65%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.61 + Everton de Vina defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.61

Everton de Vina attack 0.97 + Huachipato defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Huachipato scores more

49%

level

25%

Everton de Vina scores more

26%

Huachipato at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Parra

Huachipato · G

7.9

Match Events

1'

Felipe Campos

7'

G. Montes↳ M. Rodríguez

32'

Brayan Palmezano

38'

Cris Martínez

42'

Cristian Riquelme

46'

J. Brea← M. Gutiérrez

46'

A. Ríos← F. Campos

46'

N. Baeza← C. Riquelme

58'

Antonio Castillo

62'

Diego OyarzúnGoal cancelled

68'

O. Fernández← M. Wassenne

69'

C. Villanueva← B. Palmezano

84'

B. Betancor← F. Villagrán

87'

S. Sáez← M. Rodríguez

87'

M. Briceño← C. Martínez

89'

J. Cruz← E. Ramos

90+2'

R. Malanca← G. Montes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuachipatoEverton

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots10

4Corners8

14Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots10

5On Target6

4Off Target4

2Blocked0

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

297Total Passes355

216Accurate Passes276

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1