Everton de Vina 1–0 Huachipato: Result & Stats

Everton de Vina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huachipato

R. Contreras 65'

11/2/2024

Primera División · Round 29Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Everton de Vina56%

×Draw23%

Huachipato20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton de VinaExpected goals in this matchHuachipato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.96

Everton de Vina

1.77

Huachipato

0.96

Everton de Vina creates 84% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.57

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Everton de Vina

1.57

Huachipato

0.85

allows per match

Everton de Vina

1.06

Huachipato

1.96

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Everton de Vina-0.28scores less

Huachipato-0.05on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

Huachipato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw

80%

Everton de Vina or Huachipato

77%

Draw or Huachipato

44%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

32%

Huachipato wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

83%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

53%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

26%

Huachipato 1+ goals

62%

Huachipato 2+ goals

25%

Huachipato 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

73%

Huachipato (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

Huachipato away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.57 + Huachipato defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.77

Huachipato attack 0.85 + Everton de Vina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Everton de Vina scores more

56%

level

23%

Huachipato scores more

20%

Everton de Vina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

L. Pastrán

Everton de Vina · M

7.6

Match Events

35'

Renzo Malanca

37'

Mario Briceño

46'

F. Martínez← E. Ramos

58'

S. Sáez← C. Villanueva

58'

L. Díaz← M. Briceño

62'

Sebastián Sáez

65'

R. Contreras↳ L. Pastrán

67'

Nicolás Baeza

70'

M. Gutiérrez← J. Gutiérrez

70'

B. Palmezano← S. Silva

72'

A. Ibacache← N. Baeza

75'

Lautaro Pastrán

79'

T. Asta-Buruaga← L. Pastrán

79'

J. Cruz← Á. Madrid

90+4'

Rodrigo Contreras

90+5'

J. dos Santos← R. Contreras

90'

B. Mellado← A. Castillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonHuachipato

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots6

8Corners1

6Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots6

7On Target2

8Off Target3

3Blocked1

12Inside Box1

6Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

421Total Passes358

318Accurate Passes248

76%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1