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HSV ODIN 59 vs GOES — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
CANC
12:30
GOES
GOES
10/17/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 7Sportpark Assumburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

HSV ODIN 5948%
×Draw21%
GOES31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HSV ODIN 59
2.21
GOES
1.77

HSV ODIN 59 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59
1.75
GOES
1.45

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59
2.08
GOES
2.68

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par
GOES+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

GOES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw
69%
HSV ODIN 59 or GOES
79%
Draw or GOES
52%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
28%
GOES wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
89%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
65%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
38%
GOES 1+ goals
83%
GOES 2+ goals
53%
GOES 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
60%
GOES (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

GOES away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + GOES defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.21

GOES attack 1.45 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more
48%
level
21%
GOES scores more
31%

HSV ODIN 59 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HSV ODIN 59 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HSV ODIN 59 face GOES (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with HSV ODIN 59 hosting GOES. Match starts October 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

HSV ODIN 59 host GOES at Sportpark Assumburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.