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GOES vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

GOES
GOES
CANC
13:30
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
1/23/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 18Sportpark Het Schenge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

GOES43%
×Draw23%
HSV ODIN 5934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOES
1.77
HSV ODIN 59
1.54

GOES creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 46 away

creates per match

GOES
1.10
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

GOES
1.65
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

GOES+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOES ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

GOES or draw
66%
GOES or HSV ODIN 59
77%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
57%

Winning margin

GOES wins by 2+
23%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

GOES 1+ goals
83%
GOES 2+ goals
53%
GOES 3+ goals
26%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
79%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
45%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

GOES (draw refunded)
56%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOES at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.65 · 31 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOES attack 1.10 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.77

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + GOES defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

GOES scores more
43%
level
23%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
34%

GOES at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "GOES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GOES vs HSV ODIN 59 — Match Preview

GOES face HSV ODIN 59 on January 23, 2021 in this Derde Divisie - Saturday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

GOES host HSV ODIN 59 at Sportpark Het Schenge.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.