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Hrvatski vitez vs GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica — Third NL - Jug 2019

Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
11/23/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 14Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hrvatski vitez53%
×Draw24%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski vitez
1.73
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.06

Hrvatski vitez creates 63% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez
1.99
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.18

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez
0.95
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.47

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw
77%
Hrvatski vitez or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
76%
Draw or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
47%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
29%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
82%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
52%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
25%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals
65%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals
29%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
70%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.18 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more
53%
level
24%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more
23%

Hrvatski vitez at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hrvatski vitez vs GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

Hrvatski vitez beat GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Gordan Demo in Posedarje.