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GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
5/2/2026Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 26Sportski centar Jure Bakotić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica54%
×Draw23%
Hrvatski vitez22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.79
Hrvatski vitez
1.06

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica creates 69% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 93 away

creates per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.62
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.02
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or draw
78%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or Hrvatski vitez
77%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
46%

Winning margin

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+
30%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals
83%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals
53%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals
26%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
65%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
29%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)
71%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.62 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more
54%
level
23%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
22%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1–0 Hrvatski vitez

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica beat Hrvatski vitez 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jure Bakotić in Kaštel Gomilica.