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Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
9/20/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 5Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac47%
×Draw25%
Grobničan Čavle28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.57
Grobničan Čavle
1.15

Hrvatski Dragovoljac creates 37% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.22
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.31
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw
72%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Grobničan Čavle
75%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
53%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
24%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
79%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
46%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
21%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
68%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
32%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
63%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.22 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
47%
level
25%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
28%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hrvatski Dragovoljac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0–1 Grobničan Čavle

Grobničan Čavle beat Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1-0 in Second NL on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić in Zagreb.