Grobničan Čavle 2–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Grobničan Čavle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

3/7/2026

Second NL · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Grobničan Čavle50%

×Draw23%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grobničan ČavleExpected goals in this matchHrvatski Dragovoljac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.25

Grobničan Čavle

1.79

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.25

Grobničan Čavle creates 43% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.78

creates per match

1.02

1.48

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.78

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.02

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.48

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw

73%

Grobničan Čavle or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

77%

Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

50%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+

27%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals

83%

Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals

53%

Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals

26%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

71%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

36%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)

65%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.02 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more

50%

level

23%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

27%

Grobničan Čavle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff