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Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Belišće — Second NL 2022

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Belišće
Belišće
I. Smojvir 85'
N. Marincic 71'
S. Opacic 45'
S. Salapic 47'
S. Anocic 29'
3/8/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 18Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac52%
×Draw23%
Belišće25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.81
Belišće
1.19

Hrvatski Dragovoljac creates 52% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.22
Belišće
1.07

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.31
Belišće
2.40

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw
75%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Belišće
77%
Draw or Belišće
48%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
29%
Belišće wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
84%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
54%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
27%
Belišće 1+ goals
70%
Belišće 2+ goals
33%
Belišće 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
67%
Belišće (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.22 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.81

Belišće attack 1.07 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
52%
level
23%
Belišće scores more
25%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hrvatski Dragovoljac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
S. Anocic
45'
S. Opacic
47'
S. Salapic
71'
N. Marincic
85'
I. Smojvir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Belišće

Hrvatski Dragovoljac beat Belišće 3-2 in Second NL on March 8, 2024.

Goals: S. Anocic (29'), S. Opacic (45'), S. Salapic (47'), N. Marincic (71'), I. Smojvir (85').

The match was played at Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić in Zagreb.