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Belišće vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac — Second NL 2022

Belišće
Belišće
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
9/2/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 3Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Belišće37%
×Draw26%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belišće
1.36
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Belišće
0.93
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.02

allows per match

Belišće
1.70
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.80

finishing

Belišće+0.00on par
Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belišće ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Belišće or draw
63%
Belišće or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
74%
Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
63%

Winning margin

Belišće wins by 2+
17%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Belišće 1+ goals
74%
Belišće 2+ goals
39%
Belišće 3+ goals
16%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
74%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
39%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Belišće (draw refunded)
50%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belišće at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belišće attack 0.93 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.02 + Belišće defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Belišće scores more
37%
level
26%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
37%

Belišće at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Belišće will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belišće vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Hrvatski Dragovoljac beat Belišće 2-1 in Second NL on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski in Belišće.