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Hrvace vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

Hrvace
Hrvace
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
3/4/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvace55%
×Draw21%
Grobničan Čavle24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvace
2.06
Grobničan Čavle
1.29

Hrvace creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hrvace
2.18
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

Hrvace
1.60
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

Hrvace+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvace ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hrvace or draw
76%
Hrvace or Grobničan Čavle
79%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
45%

Winning margin

Hrvace wins by 2+
33%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hrvace 1+ goals
87%
Hrvace 2+ goals
61%
Hrvace 3+ goals
34%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
72%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
37%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hrvace (draw refunded)
70%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvace at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvace attack 2.18 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.06

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hrvace scores more
55%
level
21%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
24%

Hrvace at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hrvace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hrvace vs Grobničan Čavle

Hrvace and Grobničan Čavle drew 2-2 in Second NL on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hrvace.